[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":57},["ShallowReactive",2],{"mental-model-fighting-the-last-war-en":3},{"title":4,"description":5,"summary":6,"sections":7,"visual":32,"related":39,"sources":52},"Fighting the Last War","Check whether a previously successful approach still fits the current problem. Use experience as information and investigate which conditions have changed.","Past success provides direction but can also fix attention in place. Check which conditions of the earlier solution still exist.",[8,14,20,26],{"heading":9,"kind":10,"paragraphs":11},"A new partner presents a new problem","practice",[12,13],"A grappler regularly succeeds with an entry against partners who retreat at first contact. A new partner holds position and contests the grip earlier. The athlete keeps trying the entry harder. The coach first asks what enabled the original route: distance, a particular response and time to establish the second grip.","When those conditions disappear, greater force is not automatically the right adjustment. Another contact sequence or renewed distance may be needed. Similarly, a boxer who could plan the first attack against a waiting partner may need earlier protection and positioning against an active one. The previous lesson remains useful when you understand the situation it assumed. Its value lies partly in revealing conditions, not simply preserving the old sequence.",{"heading":15,"kind":16,"paragraphs":17},"Experience has a context","idea",[18,19],"The entry worked last week. Today the partner responds differently and you simply try harder. Perhaps an old solution is meeting a new problem. Fighting the Last War is the strategic phrase we borrow for that habit, without asserting one original inventor. Past success provides information rather than an instruction that remains valid under every condition.","In martial arts, partners, rules, space and your own capabilities change. A technique need not suddenly become wrong. The conditions that made it applicable may have disappeared. The difference between using experience and becoming stuck often lies in willingness to examine what is different now, rather than treating familiarity as sufficient proof.",{"heading":21,"kind":22,"paragraphs":23},"Adapting does not require starting over","caution",[24,25],"This model does not demand a completely new game after every setback. A dependable foundation can remain valuable under many conditions. One unsuccessful attempt may reflect chance or poor execution. Examine what actually changed before dismissing the successful past as obsolete.","Conversely, a familiar explanation can close attention. Thinking that you simply did not try hard enough can prevent investigation of an unfamiliar response. Confirmation Bias helps identify this tendency. Bayesian Updating describes changing confidence when evidence changes. Seek a proportionate adjustment rather than a dramatic break with everything that once worked. Equally, do not make continued loyalty to the old approach the test of commitment.",{"heading":27,"kind":28,"paragraphs":29},"Make the assumptions visible","experiment",[30,31],"Choose a solution that has become less successful recently. Describe what you expect from distance, contact, available time and the partner's response. Identify one assumption that no longer holds. Ask a partner to create a safe task in which the difference becomes repeatedly visible, rather than relying on a single remembered exchange.","Test one adjustment and compare the information and options available. Can you preserve the dependable core with different preparation, or is another route necessary? Also note where the original approach still fits. OODA Loop encourages returning to the present situation. The aim is to let experience improve what you notice, rather than merely execute something that solved a different problem once. Good adaptation preserves useful lessons while releasing assumptions that no longer describe the exchange.",{"description":33,"labels":34},"An earlier solution is compared with changed conditions and given an adjusted application.",[35,36,37,38],"Earlier solution","New situation","Test assumptions","Adapt",[40,43,46,49],{"id":41,"reason":42},"bayesian-updating","New responses can change confidence in earlier expectations.",{"id":44,"reason":45},"confirmation-bias","Successful memories can make contrary evidence harder to notice.",{"id":47,"reason":48},"ooda-loop","Orientation must keep changing when the situation supplies new information.",{"id":50,"reason":51},"do-what-works","Works always needs relevant conditions and honest evidence.",[53],{"title":54,"url":55,"note":56},"MCDP 1: Warfighting","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.marines.mil\u002FPortals\u002F1\u002FPublications\u002FMCDP%201%20Warfighting.pdf","Strategic source addressing uncertainty and adaptation, not a proven origin for this label.",1791220424036]